The Necessity and Fallacy of Planning


FreshOps | October 2025

Practical Insights for Fresh Food Operations

Why your CapEx strategy needs a future-first mindset

Hey Reader,

“Everyone has a plan till they get punched in the face.” – Mike Tyson

“No plan survives first contact with the enemy.” – Helmuth von Moltke

These quotes might sound like they belong in a boxing gym or battlefield briefing, not a capital planning meeting. But they’re painfully relevant to fresh food operations.

Every year, companies pour millions into capital expenditures – automated slicers, inline vision systems, robotic palletizers – chasing productivity, quality, or labor savings. And yet, too many of these investments solve individual problems without moving the business toward a cohesive operational future.


The Real Cost of “Problem-First” Thinking

When CapEx is driven by isolated pain points, like “we need to reduce rework here” or “we need to automate this step,” you often end up with:

  • Non-integrated solutions that can’t connect with future technology
  • Wasted space or layouts that limit future scalability
  • Short-term wins that stall long-term transformation

Yes, a vision system can catch defects today. But will it integrate with your future QA and MES platform? That shiny new robot might reduce headcount now. But will its footprint box you out of a higher-throughput line down the road?

Too often, companies spend reactively instead of building toward a fully optimized operation. The result is a patchwork of solutions that work okay today but block progress tomorrow.


Start with Your Point Z, Not Point A

Capital planning shouldn’t start with “what’s broken?”

It should start with, “Where are we going?”

In our Operational Health Assessment work, we always anchor to Point Z, your long-term operational vision. That could mean:

  • Reducing labor cost per pound by 20%
  • Doubling throughput without expanding facility footprint
  • Cutting quality-related rework by 80%
  • Becoming audit-ready with zero prep time

With Point Z defined, you can evaluate every CapEx decision through a strategic lens:

Does this investment move us closer to our future state, or is it a shiny object distraction?

Planning that Survives the Punch

Let’s be clear. Even the best capital plan will get “punched in the face” by labor shortages, material delays, regulatory shifts, or customer curveballs. But without a roadmap, you're left navigating blind every time the environment changes.

What separates resilient operators isn’t a rigid plan. It’s disciplined flexibility. When you have a clear vision and strategic roadmap, you can:

  • Prioritize investments that create future options
  • Phase in technology with upstream and downstream compatibility
  • Stay agile without getting distracted

In other words, you make decisions with strategic context, not just tactical urgency.


Action Steps for Smarter Capital Planning

Here’s how to start turning CapEx from firefighting to future-building:

Define Your Point Z. Where do you want your operation to be in 3 years? Think outcomes, not just equipment.

✔ Build a visual roadmap. Map out your physical space, workflows, and tech stack. Identify interdependencies.

✔ Evaluate CapEx like a chess game. Every move should open up future plays, not box you in.

✔ Pressure-test with your team. Ask: If we invest here, what future option are we gaining or losing?

✔ Revisit quarterly. Your plan doesn’t need to be perfect. It needs to be directional and adaptable.


Final Thought

The fallacy of planning isn’t in having a plan. It’s believing the plan alone will save you. What will save you is using that plan as a filter, ensuring every dollar you spend moves you toward the operation you’re trying to build.

CapEx is not about what you can buy today. It’s about what you’re building for tomorrow.


Want a Head Start on What’s Coming?

This year’s IFFA show in Frankfurt was packed with future-shaping insights from automation designed to address labor gaps to packaging trends that haven’t even reached the U.S. market yet.

I put together a focused recap specifically for protein producers and retailers. It’s designed to help you anticipate what’s coming and begin realigning your strategy now, before the next wave hits.

Three ways to access it:

  • Single Chapter – $245
  • Full Report – $995
  • Full Report + Consultation – $1,495

Learn more and purchase here: https://buildingblock.solutions/iffa-recap-report


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Judson Armentrout
FreshOps | Practical Insights for Fresh Food Operations

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P.S. Want to know 5 Cost Saving Upgrades from IFFA?
Not sure if the Recap report is for you? This FREE 2 page guide shares some of our insights that could provide immediate value to your operation.
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FreshOps is a practical operations newsletter that challenges conventional wisdom in protein and grocery—helping leaders think differently about operations to drive value, improve cost, and prepare for what’s ahead.

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